Who I’d bet against if Twitter were sold

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This post is inspired by Warren Buffett.  Buffett often talks about how with new technology it’s impossible to pick the winners, but it’s obvious who to short.  He uses the example of the thousands of automobile companies formed in the US over a century ago, fewer than 4 remained a few decades later.  At the start of the auto industry you’d have no idea which 4 car companies to bet on, but you probably should have known to short horses.  Same thing here. 

Speculation continues to mount that Twitter is in acquisition talks with tech analysts and journalists writing about what firms as Apple, Google, Microsoft, and News Corp should or must do.

I wouldn’t put money on who might win or even if Twitter wants to do a deal—there are too many moving parts to read this, as I mentioned yesterday.  If I had to bet, I’d probably say that the most likely 2 scenarios are that that Twitter doesn’t sell or that MSFT acquires them.  The second most likely would be for News to buy them.

If Twitter does indeed sell to MSFT (or rather, anyone but News), then I think there are some obvious bet against that I’d make.  Namely, Twitter clients—e.g., Tweetdeck and Seesmic.  Perhaps others, but those two in particular would I think have a very hard to reach mainstream distribution against someone like MSFT or Google.  One of the challenges with building desktop apps I suppose. 



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